Germany's economy stutters, even if thefundamentals are strong 德国经济，家底实依然面临困境

BLAMING Germany—orat least the austerity prescribed for the euro zone by Chancellor Angela Merkel—for Europe's illsmay be popular in France. But Germans are inclined, not without some pride, tosee their economy as the strongest horse to pull the euro zone out of itsmisery. Hence the fear caused by a surprising update this month: real outputshrank by a seasonallyadjusted 0.2% in the second quarter from the first, and manufacturing by1%. 为解决在法国肆虐的欧洲经济问题，德国，至少是德国总理默克尔开出了经济紧缩的处方。但德国倾向于，也不无骄傲，来看到他们的经济成为最强的拉动欧元区走出困境的骏马。因此这种令人惊讶的上升也在这一月让人产生了恐慌：从第一季度到第二季度，真实输出调整为0.2%，制造业为1%。

Part of theexplanation was statistical. Thanks to a mild winter, there was moreconstruction than usual in the first quarter. But geopolitical crises,especially in Ukraine, had a bigger impact. German exports to Russia have plummeted. Given thetiming, the drop was due less to sanctions already imposed than to expectationsof more to come. Russia accounts for only 3% of Germany's total trade, so thelosses were easily made up in higher exports elsewhere. More devastating is therising uncertainty over Russia that is causing managers to delay investment.Germany's Ifo business-climate index, a widely watched benchmark, fell inAugust.说明中有部分是统计结果。暖冬的原因使第一季度较以往同期有更多的解释。但由于地域政治危机，尤其在乌克兰，产生了更大的影响。德国向俄国的出口直线下降。因为给定了时间来减少了制裁，下降比预期更为猛烈。俄国仅占德国总出口额的3%，因此在高出口的地方更容易出现损失。更糟的是，由于俄国持续上涨的不确定性，导致了投资经理人的投资延迟。被广泛视为基准的德国的IFO商业景气指数在8月份也直线下跌

Aside from such new risks, however, the underlying Germaneconomy still looks strong. The federal budget is close to balance. Unemployment remains low:indeed, labour shortages are an increasing problem. This applies to largebusinesses such as care for the elderly, but especially to many of the niches for whichGermany is famous, such as hearing-aid acoustics, according to the CologneInstitute for Economic Research.除去这些新的风险，潜在的德国经济依然看起来坚挺。联邦预算很接近收支平衡。失业率依然很低：的确，劳动力短缺是一个不断增长的问题。据科隆公司经济研究所发现，低失业率体现于大型公司，比如对老年人口的护理方面，如助听器生产企业。

Germany's best contribution to recovery in the euro zonewould be to let wages rise. Whether they are already doing so will not becomeclear for months, because Germany reports the relevant statistics more slowlythan most. But the willingness is there. In July Jens Weidmann, the presidentof the Bundesbank, Germany's notoriously hawkish central bank, caused asensation by calling for pay rises of 3% on average. A new minimum wage shouldalso nudge wages up. It will take effect in 2015 at 8.50 an hour, more than 40%of the median wage.德国对恢复欧元区的最大贡献来自于提升工资。无论他们是否在做这个事，几个月内还未知，因为德国的统计报告一般出得很慢。但人们对此毫无疑义。7月份，德国的著名的鹰派中央银行的董事长Jens Weidmann，申请加薪上浮3%，这引起了轰动。一项新的最低工资标准也可能推动工资上涨。这项将在2015年生效的最低时薪8.5镑，这比平均工资高出40%。Rising German wages would represent the “natural Hume mechanism at work, 

Rising German wages would represent the “natural Hume mechanism at work, butwith euros instead of gold, ” says Michael Burda, an economist at Berlin'sHumboldt University. By this he means the process first described by David Humein the 18th century, under which countries on the gold standard adjusted to imbalancesnot by letting currencies appreciate or depreciate but through rising orfalling prices and wages. In effect, Mr Burda says, the euro zone has imposed agold standard on its 18 members. Prices and wages are falling in several crisiscountries. Germany could help by letting its wages rise—if it is willing toaccommodate this. If not, there is a serious risk that deflation could takehold across the euro zone as a whole. 柏林洪堡大学的经济学者迈克尔·布达说，德国上涨的工资代表着休谟自然体制运转的，不是黄金而是欧元。他的意思是被大卫休谟首次于18世纪阐明的理论：即金本位国家调节经济平衡时不应该用货币增值或贬值的方法，而是应该提高或降低物价和薪酬。布达先生称，欧元区正在向其18个成员国强加金本位制。物价和薪酬在一些危机严重的国家正在下降。德国能通过提高其工资来起作用，如果它愿意如此做的话。如果不的话，严重的通货紧缩的危机很可能席卷整个欧元区。

German firms certainly have plenty of leeway, after practisingwage restraint for the past decade. Known as the sick man of Europe ten yearsago, Germany underwent a set of wrenching labour-market reforms starting in2003. Unions co-operated meekly, often accepting wage rises below inflation andproductivity growth.In effect, this wasan internal devaluationthat made exports more competitive, especially in sectors such as machines andchemicals, according to Karl Brenke at the German Institute for EconomicResearch in Berlin. The forgone spending power by workers also depressedconsumption. The combination led to huge trade surpluses.在过去十年实行薪酬限制，使德国的企业确信他们现在还有许多余量。正如十年前以欧洲的“狂人”而知名，德国自2003年经历了一系列复杂的劳动力市场改革。联盟向来是逆来顺受，常常在通货膨胀和生产力提高的情况下接受工资上涨的提议。柏林经济研究机构的卡尔称，国内发生的一场国内货币贬值实际上让出口更有竞争力了。工人们丧失消费能力也使消费低迷，二者结合致使了巨大的贸易顺差。

Rising wages and consumption in Germany, if they areaccepted, would partially reverse this trend. That would lead to smaller tradesurpluses, as both the European Union and the Americans are demanding. The onlyother domestic lever is increased investment, both by the government and bycompanies, an area where Germany has been stingy in recent years. But becauseinvesting requires confidence, Russia is again proving a damper.

德国提高工资和消费，如果被接受，将会一定程度上扭转这一趋势。这将使贸易顺差减少，这也是欧盟和美国希望的。唯一的国内杠杆是国内的投资，包括政府和企业投资，这一块也是近年较少的。但是因为投资需要信心，俄国提供了反面的教材。

The incredibly high cost of Americans'financial stupidity

美国人不会理财的高代价

We’ve all heard thesaying, “there’s a sucker born every minute.”

Well, what if Iwere to tell you that this is a gross underestimate? According to theDepartment of Human Health and Services, there are about 7.6 Americans bornevery minute, and there’s good evidence that about five of them will grow up tobe “suckers” when it comes to financial literacy.我们都听过一句俗语“每分钟都有一个傻瓜降生”。如果我说，这显然是低估了实际情形，那大家怎么想呢？美国卫生和公众服务部的数据显示，每分钟有7.6个美国人降生，有确切证据表明，其中有5位会是理财方面的“笨蛋”。

The University ofMichigan’s Health and Retirement Study found that only about one third ofAmericans ages 50 and older were able to correctly answer three simplequestions about how compound interest works, what inflation means for one’ssavings and investment gains, and the basic differences between a single stockand a mutual fund.密歇根大学的健康与退休研究项目发现，年龄在50岁及以上的美国人中，只有大约1/3人数可以无误地回答出三个简单问题：何为复利？通货膨胀会对个人的储蓄和投资收益产生什么影响？一只股票和一只共有基金有何差别？

In the latestaddition to a body ofeconomic research that shows Americans’ striking financial illiteracy, a studyby economists Benjamin Keys, Devin Pope, and Jaren Pope examined Americans’ refinancing habits duringthe worst of the financial crisis, when the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve were doing their utmost to getpeople to refinance their mortgages and take advantage of low interest rates.According to the paper:一系列的研究表明美国人理财能力令人震惊的低下，而最新来自经济学家本杰明、大卫和贾伦的研究课题是，美国人在经济危机最高峰时的再融资习惯，财政部和美联储当时竭尽全力来使人们对其债务进行再融资，并利用低利率的环境。

“We estimate that approximately 20% of households forwhom refinancing would be optimal and who appeared unconstrained to do so, hadnot taken advantage of the lower rates. We estimate the present-discounted costto the household who fails to refinance to be approximately $11,500, makingthis a particularly large consumer financial mistake.”很多家庭进行再融资是合适的，且他们也表现的愿意如此做，我们估计其中约有20%没有利用低利率。据我们计算，当前未进行再融资的家庭，损失约计1.15万美元，这在消费者金融领域是极大的失误。

Altogether, this failure to refinance cost theseconsumers, and presumably the economy at large, $5.4 billion. And this estimateis actually on the conservative side of the spectrum.由于没有进行再融资，这些消费者的整体损失是54亿美元，大概美国经济也蒙受了同等损失。而且，这个数字实际上偏于保守。

A 2008 study by Dartmouth finance professor KennethFrench estimated that investors in the U.S. pay roughly $100 billion per yearin fees and other expenses in an attempt to “beat the market” rather than investing in low-fee index funds that trackthe broader performance of the stock market. And a 2006 study from Harvardeconomist John Campbell estimated that poor decisions concerning mortgagefinancing costs homeowners more than $50 billion annually. The list goes on,from payday loans to credit cards to retirement products: Americans spendbillions more because of their lack of financial knowledge.

2008年达特毛斯学院经济教授弗兰奇在其研究中估算，美国的投资者每年支付了大约1000亿美元的费用以试图获得高于市场平均数的收益，而非投资于低手续费、专门跟踪大盘的指数基金。同时，2006年一项来自哈佛经济学家约翰的研究中估算，由于按揭贷款的决定欠妥，使得业主每年损失超出500亿。这份清单继续，从付每天的贷款到信用卡，到退休产品，由于缺少理财知识，美国人多花了十亿多美元。

For companies to grow, why bigger is notalways better公司并非越大越好

Growth has longbeen the imperative in economics and business. As the world’s population tops 7billion, and soon 8 and 9, it’s becoming clear that the best performingorganizations, and perhaps countries, will be less defined by absolute size andmore defined by the speed and agility that comes from clarity of purpose, strategic insightand decisive action. As the scale of human organizing expands to unprecedentedlevels, the winners will be those people, organizations, and countries thatcan: focus on what matters most to their core stakeholders; rapidly process newinformation, learn from it, and then thoughtfully and deliberately act amid thecomplexity.发展对于经济和商业来说是第一要务。随着世界人口达到了70亿，且很快会是80、90亿之多，一个清晰的趋势是，拥有最好表现的公司或国家将不是单纯以规模定义，而是以目标清晰、战略性的眼光、果断地行动而带来的速度和敏捷度来定义的。随着人类组织的规模发展到前所未有的规模，未来的赢家将是拥有这些的人、组织和国家：专注于其核心利益最相关的事，快速处理新信息，从中学习，然后于错综复杂的形势中周全地、审慎地展开行动。

Think Airbnb.They’ve experienced explosive growth – and not by the traditional means ofbuying or building more properties. They did it by understanding what reallymattered to those booking hotel rooms. They did it by studying the emergence ofthe “sharing economy.” And, absent a vast footprint of physical assets, they did it by actingdecisively to create a whole new model for meeting this traditional need – amodel that delivers competitive advantage through scale but not in atraditional sense of physically controlled properties. Indeed, Airbnb not onlycreated a new model, it created a new market.就以房屋租赁公司爱本卜为例。他们经历了爆炸式的成长，并且不是以传统的买或建造更多地产的传统形式扩张的。他们的壮大是通过对于订酒店房间的人而言，什么是最重要的东西的深刻理解；是通过学习分享经济的出现。而且，虽然没有大量实物资产，他们果断地创造了一个完全新型的模式来满足传统需求，这种模式也是通过规模化来实现竞争优势，但并非传统意义上的控制物业。事实上，爱本卜不只创造了一个新模式，它创造了一个新市场。cii-J�ef(�"or-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:major-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:major-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;color:#3A3A3A;mso-font-kerning:0pt'>发展对于经济和商业来说是第一要务。随着世界人口达到了70亿，且很快会是80、90亿之多，一个清晰的趋势是，拥有最好表现的公司或国家将不是单纯以规模定义，而是以目标清晰、战略性的眼光、果断地行动而带来的速度和敏捷度来定义的。随着人类组织的规模发展到前所未有的规模，未来的赢家将是拥有这些的人、组织和国家：专注于其核心利益最相关的事，快速处理新信息，从中学习，然后于错综复杂的形势中周全地、审慎地展开行动。

When it comes to producing female entrepreneurs, Harvard, Stanford, MITlead the way 最盛产女企业家的大学有哪些

It’s back-to-school season, so it’s worth asking whichtop universities offer their female students the best springboard to a powerfulposition at the top of their own company?现在正是返校时节，所以很有必要探讨一下哪些一流大学为其女学生提供了最佳跳板，可以使她们在自己的公司中成为掌握最高权力的领导者。

Over the past five years, 40 women with undergraduatedegrees from Stanford University have received venture capital funding forcompanies they founded, more than any other top school, according to data fromPitchBook, which provides research to private equity and venture capital firms.Among the companies founded by Stanford alums receiving venture capital fundingin recent years is flash-sale style home decor website One Kings Lane, whichwas founded by Stanford grad Susan Feldman along with Alison Pincus, the wifeof Zynga co-founder Mark Pincus. Another Stanford grad, Clara Shih — a formerFortune “40 Under 40″ member who also serves on Starbucks’ board — co-foundedsocial media marketing management service Hearsay Social with former Microsoftengineer Steve Garrity.根据Pitchbook公司—一家专为私募和风投提供调研的公司—的数据，在过去5年里，拥有斯坦福学士学位的40位女企业家获得了风险基金投资，数量比其它任何一家一流大学都多。近年来，在斯坦福校友建立的获得了风投的企业包括有，家居装饰网站One kings lane,由斯坦福校友苏珊和艾丽森建立，艾丽森是社交网站zynga的联合创始人马克的妻子。另一位斯坦福毕业者，克拉拉，曾上榜财富“40位年龄低于40岁的财富精英”，她是星巴克的董事，同时与前微软工程师斯蒂夫共同创办了社交媒体营销管理服务公司，Hearsay Social。

When it comes to MBA programs, Harvard tops the list with56 female founders receiving funding over the past five years. Companies springing up recentlythat are led by female Harvard MBA’s include beauty and grooming productsdelivery service Birchbox, founded by Harvard MBAs Hayley Barna and KatiaBeauchamp, which recently raised $60 million in a Series B funding. Anothercompany on the list is personal styling for women website Stitch Fix, which wasfounded in 2011 by Katrina Lake, who actually has degrees from both Stanfordand Harvard.说到工商管理硕士的项目，哈佛以过去5年里共56名获得风投的女性创业者而领先其它大学。近期涌现的由哈佛女性MBA创办的企业包括，美容和修饰产品的网站Birchbox,由同为哈佛MBA毕业生的海莉和比彻姆创办，该公司近期在B轮融资中获得了6000万美元的融资。另一个清单上的企业是为女性提供个人风格的网站Stitch Fix，由卡特里娜于2011年创办，她事实上拥有斯坦福和哈佛的两个学位。

Harvard also came in third on the list of undergraduateprograms with 29 female-founder alums dating back to 2009, finishing behind theMassachusetts Institute of Technology and its 31 female founders during thatsame period. MIT finished third on PitchBook’s list of MBA programs with femalealums receiving VC funding over the past five years. MIT had 23 during thatperiod, behind Stanford’s 31.

自2009年以来创办企业的女性本科毕业生中，哈佛以29位数量位列榜单第三，排在拥有31位女性创业者的麻省理工之后。在Pitchbook的过去5年里女性MBA创业者获得风投的榜单上，哈佛同样位列第三，以23位的数量排在斯坦福的31名之后。

Of course, those three schools aren’t just churning out femaleentrepreneurs. Stanford, Harvard and MIT also placed in the top five (for bothundergraduates and MBAs) in a separate PitchBook list ranking schools by thenumber of company founders of all genders that they produced. That the schoolsfared well on both lists — again, Stanford topped the undergraduate list, whileHarvard’s MBA program topped its list — shows that these top schools are simplyconsistently producing successfully entrepreneurial graduates of all genders.当然，这三个大学并不仅仅制造女企业家。PitchBook另一个榜单是评估大学培养的企业家的（不论性别）数量，斯坦福、哈佛和麻省理工均跻身于前五名。斯坦福大学位列本科生榜单榜首，而哈佛是MBA榜单的首位，这证明了这些名校持续在培养成功企业家，不论性别。

Life after death? Largest-ever studyprovides evidence that 'out of body' and 'near-death' experiences may be real轮回有其事？有史来最大的研究证明灵魂和濒死体验可能是事实

There is scientific evidence tosuggest that life can continue after death, according to the largest evermedical study carried out on the subject.根据有史来最大的医学研究，有科学证据证明人死后，依然有生命活动在继续。

A team based in theUK has spent the last four years seeking out cardiac arrest patients to analyse their experiences,and found that almost 40 per cent of survivors described having some form of“awareness” at a time when they were declared clinically dead.英国研究团队花费了四年时间致力于心脏骤停患者的经验研究，发现几乎40%的幸存者称，在他们被宣布医学上“死亡”时，他们依然拥有某种形式的“意识”。

Experts currentlybelieve that the brain shuts down within 20 to 30 seconds of the heart stoppingbeating – and that it is not possible to be aware of anything at all once thathas happened.目前专家认为，大脑会在心脏停止跳动的20-30秒内停止工作，而这意味着死者根本不可能意识到任何东西。

But scientists inthe new study said they heard compelling evidence that patients experiencedreal events for up to three minutes after this had happened – and could recallthem accurately once they had been resuscitated.但新研究中的科学家称，他们获得了强有力的证据证明患者在宣布死亡后的两到三分钟时间里经历的事件，且在他们苏醒后可以准确地回忆所发生的事情。