Such a message isn't falling on entirely deaf ears: latelast year, Beijing moved to ease its decades-long one-child policy by allowingcouples to have two children if one spouse is an only child.这个信息并非无人理睬：去年年底时，北京开始放开了其持续了几十年的独生子女政策，改为允许夫妻双方有一方为独生子女的，可生第二胎。
But the policy's impact has been limited. By the end ofMay, only 271, 600 couples had applied for permission to give birth to a secondchild, with 241, 300 couples having been given the permit, Yang Wenzhuang, adirector overseeing familyplanning at the National Health and Family Planning Commission, said ata briefing in July.但这一政策影响很有限。中国国家卫生和计划生育委员会计划生育基层指导司司长杨文庄在6月份的一次新闻发布会上称，截止5月底时，只有271600对夫妻申请要二胎，有271300对夫妻拿到了许可。
Economists and researchers say such small steps are farfrom enough.
'I've been traveling to different parts of the country inrecent months to find out exactly what changes are taking place in oursociety...but wherever I go those who actually qualify [to have a second child]is less than 5%, ' said Gu Baochang, a professor at Renmin University. Thereason why that figure is so low is in part because many rural residents were already permitted tohave a second child. Likewise, China's rules previously allowed individuals whohave no siblings togive birth to a second child, so long as they were married to someone whomatched those same conditions.经济学家和研究人员称，这一小步还远远不够。人民大学的教授顾宝昌称，最近几个月，我到我国的几个地区调研，来找出我们的社会确切的正在发生什么变化。。但是无论我去哪里，当地的符合要二胎的人只有不到5%。这个数字如此之低，部分原因是因为许多农村居民早已有允许要二胎的政策。同样的，中国的政策以前允许双方都是独生子女的夫妻要二胎。
Faced with a rapidly aging population and decliningnumbers of the working-age, government officials have strongly hinted that theymay need to raise the retirement age.面对迅速增长的老龄化人群和萎缩的劳动力人群，政府官员已强烈的暗示出，他们可能需要提高退休年龄。
The ratio between the number of people who are payinginto the country's social insurance pool and those who receive pensions rose to3.09 in 2012, up from 2.90 in 2003, the latest official data showed.最新的官方数据显示：缴纳社保的人群数量和领取退休金的人群数量的比值在2012年升至3.09：1，而2003年时，比值是2.09：1.
'When you are 60 years old, who would support you?' thesilver-haired Mr. Gu said to an audience of about 400 students, researchers andjournalists last week.上周时，头发花白的顾先生这样问约400名的听众，包括学生、研究者和记者：当你们60岁时，谁来养你们呢？
Results of the most recent census in 2010 showed that China's fertility rates,or the number of births per 1, 000 women, was 1.18. Large cities and Beijingand Shanghai were even lower, at around 0.7.
As China's urbanization rate increases, with more farmersmoving into the city, the fertility rate will drop further due to higher livingcosts, said Liang Jianzhang, a professor at Peking University.北京大学的一教授梁建庄称，随着中国的城市化进程的提高，更多的农民进入到城市，因为生活成本的提升，生育率会进一步下降。
To make it worse, China is seeing a rising number of 'leftover women, ' ormiddle-aged urban Chinese women who cannot find their Mr. Right--and unlikesingle women in developed nations, unmarried Chinese woman are not willing tohave children, said Mr. Liang, who's also the founder and chairman ofCtrip.com, Chinese online travel company. 他说，让事情更糟的是，中国正在出现数量攀升的“剩女”，而且她们不像发达国家的单身女人，中国的未结婚女性不愿意要孩子。梁先生同时也是携程网的创始人和董事。
'However you look at it, [the outlook of] China'sfertility rate seems more pessimistic than a lot of other countries, ' he said,adding that in 10 to 20 years, China's population will be greying at a pace evenfaster than that of a decade ago in Japan, where the elderly currently make up25% of all residents. An aging population has partly contributed to the 'lostdecade' of the Japanese economy, economists have said.他说，无论你怎么看待，中国生育率的问题前景要比很多别国家更为悲观。中国在10到20年内，人口老龄化的速度甚至比10年前的日本还要快，日本现今的老龄人口占到人口总数的1/4。经济学家曾称，日本的经济产生“失去的十年”，其部分原因是因为人口老龄化。
But others at the forum disputed the notion that Chinashould be encouraging a new baby boom.但是论坛中也有部分人对中国应该鼓励新的婴儿潮的观念持不同意见。
'Sounds like we are returning to Chairman Mao's line ofthinking...I think we must not make that kind of mistake, ' said Chen Zhiwu, aYale University professor.耶鲁大学教授陈之舞说，这听起来像是我们回归到了毛主席的思路上去了，我认为我们一定不能再犯同样的错误。
Mr. Huang, however, said that even if the governmentcompletely scraps the one-child policy, the country's fertility rate stillwon't be 'normal, ' and will instead continue to stay low.
'It would be disastrous for China, ' he said. 'No doubtabout that.'黄先生却称，即使政府完全打破独生子女政策，中国的生育率也不会正常，相反，它会继续走低。而这对国家，毫无疑问将是灾难性的。
Germany's economy stutters, even if thefundamentals are strong 德国经济，家底实依然面临困境
BLAMING Germany—orat least the austerity prescribed for the euro zone by Chancellor Angela Merkel—for Europe's illsmay be popular in France. But Germans are inclined, not without some pride, tosee their economy as the strongest horse to pull the euro zone out of itsmisery. Hence the fear caused by a surprising update this month: real outputshrank by a seasonallyadjusted 0.2% in the second quarter from the first, and manufacturing by1%. 为解决在法国肆虐的欧洲经济问题，德国，至少是德国总理默克尔开出了经济紧缩的处方。但德国倾向于，也不无骄傲，来看到他们的经济成为最强的拉动欧元区走出困境的骏马。因此这种令人惊讶的上升也在这一月让人产生了恐慌：从第一季度到第二季度，真实输出调整为0.2%，制造业为1%。
Part of theexplanation was statistical. Thanks to a mild winter, there was moreconstruction than usual in the first quarter. But geopolitical crises,especially in Ukraine, had a bigger impact. German exports to Russia have plummeted. Given thetiming, the drop was due less to sanctions already imposed than to expectationsof more to come. Russia accounts for only 3% of Germany's total trade, so thelosses were easily made up in higher exports elsewhere. More devastating is therising uncertainty over Russia that is causing managers to delay investment.Germany's Ifo business-climate index, a widely watched benchmark, fell inAugust.说明中有部分是统计结果。暖冬的原因使第一季度较以往同期有更多的解释。但由于地域政治危机，尤其在乌克兰，产生了更大的影响。德国向俄国的出口直线下降。因为给定了时间来减少了制裁，下降比预期更为猛烈。俄国仅占德国总出口额的3%，因此在高出口的地方更容易出现损失。更糟的是，由于俄国持续上涨的不确定性，导致了投资经理人的投资延迟。被广泛视为基准的德国的IFO商业景气指数在8月份也直线下跌
Aside from such new risks, however, the underlying Germaneconomy still looks strong. The federal budget is close to balance. Unemployment remains low:indeed, labour shortages are an increasing problem. This applies to largebusinesses such as care for the elderly, but especially to many of the niches for whichGermany is famous, such as hearing-aid acoustics, according to the CologneInstitute for Economic Research.除去这些新的风险，潜在的德国经济依然看起来坚挺。联邦预算很接近收支平衡。失业率依然很低：的确，劳动力短缺是一个不断增长的问题。据科隆公司经济研究所发现，低失业率体现于大型公司，比如对老年人口的护理方面，如助听器生产企业。
Germany's best contribution to recovery in the euro zonewould be to let wages rise. Whether they are already doing so will not becomeclear for months, because Germany reports the relevant statistics more slowlythan most. But the willingness is there. In July Jens Weidmann, the presidentof the Bundesbank, Germany's notoriously hawkish central bank, caused asensation by calling for pay rises of 3% on average. A new minimum wage shouldalso nudge wages up. It will take effect in 2015 at 8.50 an hour, more than 40%of the median wage.德国对恢复欧元区的最大贡献来自于提升工资。无论他们是否在做这个事，几个月内还未知，因为德国的统计报告一般出得很慢。但人们对此毫无疑义。7月份，德国的著名的鹰派中央银行的董事长Jens Weidmann，申请加薪上浮3%，这引起了轰动。一项新的最低工资标准也可能推动工资上涨。这项将在2015年生效的最低时薪8.5镑，这比平均工资高出40%。Rising German wages would represent the “natural Hume mechanism at work,
Rising German wages would represent the “natural Hume mechanism at work, butwith euros instead of gold, ” says Michael Burda, an economist at Berlin'sHumboldt University. By this he means the process first described by David Humein the 18th century, under which countries on the gold standard adjusted to imbalancesnot by letting currencies appreciate or depreciate but through rising orfalling prices and wages. In effect, Mr Burda says, the euro zone has imposed agold standard on its 18 members. Prices and wages are falling in several crisiscountries. Germany could help by letting its wages rise—if it is willing toaccommodate this. If not, there is a serious risk that deflation could takehold across the euro zone as a whole. 柏林洪堡大学的经济学者迈克尔·布达说，德国上涨的工资代表着休谟自然体制运转的，不是黄金而是欧元。他的意思是被大卫休谟首次于18世纪阐明的理论：即金本位国家调节经济平衡时不应该用货币增值或贬值的方法，而是应该提高或降低物价和薪酬。布达先生称，欧元区正在向其18个成员国强加金本位制。物价和薪酬在一些危机严重的国家正在下降。德国能通过提高其工资来起作用，如果它愿意如此做的话。如果不的话，严重的通货紧缩的危机很可能席卷整个欧元区。
German firms certainly have plenty of leeway, after practisingwage restraint for the past decade. Known as the sick man of Europe ten yearsago, Germany underwent a set of wrenching labour-market reforms starting in2003. Unions co-operated meekly, often accepting wage rises below inflation andproductivity growth.In effect, this wasan internal devaluationthat made exports more competitive, especially in sectors such as machines andchemicals, according to Karl Brenke at the German Institute for EconomicResearch in Berlin. The forgone spending power by workers also depressedconsumption. The combination led to huge trade surpluses.在过去十年实行薪酬限制，使德国的企业确信他们现在还有许多余量。正如十年前以欧洲的“狂人”而知名，德国自2003年经历了一系列复杂的劳动力市场改革。联盟向来是逆来顺受，常常在通货膨胀和生产力提高的情况下接受工资上涨的提议。柏林经济研究机构的卡尔称，国内发生的一场国内货币贬值实际上让出口更有竞争力了。工人们丧失消费能力也使消费低迷，二者结合致使了巨大的贸易顺差。
Rising wages and consumption in Germany, if they areaccepted, would partially reverse this trend. That would lead to smaller tradesurpluses, as both the European Union and the Americans are demanding. The onlyother domestic lever is increased investment, both by the government and bycompanies, an area where Germany has been stingy in recent years. But becauseinvesting requires confidence, Russia is again proving a damper.
The incredibly high cost of Americans'financial stupidity
美国人不会理财的高代价
We’ve all heard thesaying, “there’s a sucker born every minute.”
Well, what if Iwere to tell you that this is a gross underestimate? According to theDepartment of Human Health and Services, there are about 7.6 Americans bornevery minute, and there’s good evidence that about five of them will grow up tobe “suckers” when it comes to financial literacy.我们都听过一句俗语“每分钟都有一个傻瓜降生”。如果我说，这显然是低估了实际情形，那大家怎么想呢？美国卫生和公众服务部的数据显示，每分钟有7.6个美国人降生，有确切证据表明，其中有5位会是理财方面的“笨蛋”。
The University ofMichigan’s Health and Retirement Study found that only about one third ofAmericans ages 50 and older were able to correctly answer three simplequestions about how compound interest works, what inflation means for one’ssavings and investment gains, and the basic differences between a single stockand a mutual fund.密歇根大学的健康与退休研究项目发现，年龄在50岁及以上的美国人中，只有大约1/3人数可以无误地回答出三个简单问题：何为复利？通货膨胀会对个人的储蓄和投资收益产生什么影响？一只股票和一只共有基金有何差别？
In the latestaddition to a body ofeconomic research that shows Americans’ striking financial illiteracy, a studyby economists Benjamin Keys, Devin Pope, and Jaren Pope examined Americans’ refinancing habits duringthe worst of the financial crisis, when the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve were doing their utmost to getpeople to refinance their mortgages and take advantage of low interest rates.According to the paper:一系列的研究表明美国人理财能力令人震惊的低下，而最新来自经济学家本杰明、大卫和贾伦的研究课题是，美国人在经济危机最高峰时的再融资习惯，财政部和美联储当时竭尽全力来使人们对其债务进行再融资，并利用低利率的环境。
“We estimate that approximately 20% of households forwhom refinancing would be optimal and who appeared unconstrained to do so, hadnot taken advantage of the lower rates. We estimate the present-discounted costto the household who fails to refinance to be approximately $11,500, makingthis a particularly large consumer financial mistake.”很多家庭进行再融资是合适的，且他们也表现的愿意如此做，我们估计其中约有20%没有利用低利率。据我们计算，当前未进行再融资的家庭，损失约计1.15万美元，这在消费者金融领域是极大的失误。
Altogether, this failure to refinance cost theseconsumers, and presumably the economy at large, $5.4 billion. And this estimateis actually on the conservative side of the spectrum.由于没有进行再融资，这些消费者的整体损失是54亿美元，大概美国经济也蒙受了同等损失。而且，这个数字实际上偏于保守。
A 2008 study by Dartmouth finance professor KennethFrench estimated that investors in the U.S. pay roughly $100 billion per yearin fees and other expenses in an attempt to “beat the market” rather than investing in low-fee index funds that trackthe broader performance of the stock market. And a 2006 study from Harvardeconomist John Campbell estimated that poor decisions concerning mortgagefinancing costs homeowners more than $50 billion annually. The list goes on,from payday loans to credit cards to retirement products: Americans spendbillions more because of their lack of financial knowledge.
For companies to grow, why bigger is notalways better公司并非越大越好
Growth has longbeen the imperative in economics and business. As the world’s population tops 7billion, and soon 8 and 9, it’s becoming clear that the best performingorganizations, and perhaps countries, will be less defined by absolute size andmore defined by the speed and agility that comes from clarity of purpose, strategic insightand decisive action. As the scale of human organizing expands to unprecedentedlevels, the winners will be those people, organizations, and countries thatcan: focus on what matters most to their core stakeholders; rapidly process newinformation, learn from it, and then thoughtfully and deliberately act amid thecomplexity.发展对于经济和商业来说是第一要务。随着世界人口达到了70亿，且很快会是80、90亿之多，一个清晰的趋势是，拥有最好表现的公司或国家将不是单纯以规模定义，而是以目标清晰、战略性的眼光、果断地行动而带来的速度和敏捷度来定义的。随着人类组织的规模发展到前所未有的规模，未来的赢家将是拥有这些的人、组织和国家：专注于其核心利益最相关的事，快速处理新信息，从中学习，然后于错综复杂的形势中周全地、审慎地展开行动。
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Such a message isn't falling on entirely deaf ears: latelast year, Beijing moved to ease its decades-long one-child policy by allowingcouples to have two children if one spouse is an only child.这个信息并非无人理睬：去年年底时，北京开始放开了其持续了几十年的独生子女政策，改为允许夫妻双方有一方为独生子女的，可生第二胎。
But the policy's impact has been limited. By the end ofMay, only 271, 600 couples had applied for permission to give birth to a secondchild, with 241, 300 couples having been given the permit, Yang Wenzhuang, adirector overseeing familyplanning at the National Health and Family Planning Commission, said ata briefing in July.但这一政策影响很有限。中国国家卫生和计划生育委员会计划生育基层指导司司长杨文庄在6月份的一次新闻发布会上称，截止5月底时，只有271600对夫妻申请要二胎，有271300对夫妻拿到了许可。
Economists and researchers say such small steps are farfrom enough.
'I've been traveling to different parts of the country inrecent months to find out exactly what changes are taking place in oursociety...but wherever I go those who actually qualify [to have a second child]is less than 5%, ' said Gu Baochang, a professor at Renmin University. Thereason why that figure is so low is in part because many rural residents were already permitted tohave a second child. Likewise, China's rules previously allowed individuals whohave no siblings togive birth to a second child, so long as they were married to someone whomatched those same conditions.经济学家和研究人员称，这一小步还远远不够。人民大学的教授顾宝昌称，最近几个月，我到我国的几个地区调研，来找出我们的社会确切的正在发生什么变化。。但是无论我去哪里，当地的符合要二胎的人只有不到5%。这个数字如此之低，部分原因是因为许多农村居民早已有允许要二胎的政策。同样的，中国的政策以前允许双方都是独生子女的夫妻要二胎。
Faced with a rapidly aging population and decliningnumbers of the working-age, government officials have strongly hinted that theymay need to raise the retirement age.面对迅速增长的老龄化人群和萎缩的劳动力人群，政府官员已强烈的暗示出，他们可能需要提高退休年龄。
The ratio between the number of people who are payinginto the country's social insurance pool and those who receive pensions rose to3.09 in 2012, up from 2.90 in 2003, the latest official data showed.最新的官方数据显示：缴纳社保的人群数量和领取退休金的人群数量的比值在2012年升至3.09：1，而2003年时，比值是2.09：1.
'When you are 60 years old, who would support you?' thesilver-haired Mr. Gu said to an audience of about 400 students, researchers andjournalists last week.上周时，头发花白的顾先生这样问约400名的听众，包括学生、研究者和记者：当你们60岁时，谁来养你们呢？
Results of the most recent census in 2010 showed that China's fertility rates,or the number of births per 1, 000 women, was 1.18. Large cities and Beijingand Shanghai were even lower, at around 0.7.
2010年最新的人口普查结果显示，中国的生育力比率是1.18.生育率即每1000名妇女生育孩子的数量。大城市像北京和上海更低，约在0.7。
As China's urbanization rate increases, with more farmersmoving into the city, the fertility rate will drop further due to higher livingcosts, said Liang Jianzhang, a professor at Peking University.北京大学的一教授梁建庄称，随着中国的城市化进程的提高，更多的农民进入到城市，因为生活成本的提升，生育率会进一步下降。
To make it worse, China is seeing a rising number of 'leftover women, ' ormiddle-aged urban Chinese women who cannot find their Mr. Right--and unlikesingle women in developed nations, unmarried Chinese woman are not willing tohave children, said Mr. Liang, who's also the founder and chairman ofCtrip.com, Chinese online travel company. 他说，让事情更糟的是，中国正在出现数量攀升的“剩女”，而且她们不像发达国家的单身女人，中国的未结婚女性不愿意要孩子。梁先生同时也是携程网的创始人和董事。
'However you look at it, [the outlook of] China'sfertility rate seems more pessimistic than a lot of other countries, ' he said,adding that in 10 to 20 years, China's population will be greying at a pace evenfaster than that of a decade ago in Japan, where the elderly currently make up25% of all residents. An aging population has partly contributed to the 'lostdecade' of the Japanese economy, economists have said.他说，无论你怎么看待，中国生育率的问题前景要比很多别国家更为悲观。中国在10到20年内，人口老龄化的速度甚至比10年前的日本还要快，日本现今的老龄人口占到人口总数的1/4。经济学家曾称，日本的经济产生“失去的十年”，其部分原因是因为人口老龄化。
But others at the forum disputed the notion that Chinashould be encouraging a new baby boom.但是论坛中也有部分人对中国应该鼓励新的婴儿潮的观念持不同意见。
'Sounds like we are returning to Chairman Mao's line ofthinking...I think we must not make that kind of mistake, ' said Chen Zhiwu, aYale University professor.耶鲁大学教授陈之舞说，这听起来像是我们回归到了毛主席的思路上去了，我认为我们一定不能再犯同样的错误。
Mr. Huang, however, said that even if the governmentcompletely scraps the one-child policy, the country's fertility rate stillwon't be 'normal, ' and will instead continue to stay low.
'It would be disastrous for China, ' he said. 'No doubtabout that.'黄先生却称，即使政府完全打破独生子女政策，中国的生育率也不会正常，相反，它会继续走低。而这对国家，毫无疑问将是灾难性的。
Germany's economy stutters, even if thefundamentals are strong 德国经济，家底实依然面临困境
BLAMING Germany—orat least the austerity prescribed for the euro zone by Chancellor Angela Merkel—for Europe's illsmay be popular in France. But Germans are inclined, not without some pride, tosee their economy as the strongest horse to pull the euro zone out of itsmisery. Hence the fear caused by a surprising update this month: real outputshrank by a seasonallyadjusted 0.2% in the second quarter from the first, and manufacturing by1%. 为解决在法国肆虐的欧洲经济问题，德国，至少是德国总理默克尔开出了经济紧缩的处方。但德国倾向于，也不无骄傲，来看到他们的经济成为最强的拉动欧元区走出困境的骏马。因此这种令人惊讶的上升也在这一月让人产生了恐慌：从第一季度到第二季度，真实输出调整为0.2%，制造业为1%。
Part of theexplanation was statistical. Thanks to a mild winter, there was moreconstruction than usual in the first quarter. But geopolitical crises,especially in Ukraine, had a bigger impact. German exports to Russia have plummeted. Given thetiming, the drop was due less to sanctions already imposed than to expectationsof more to come. Russia accounts for only 3% of Germany's total trade, so thelosses were easily made up in higher exports elsewhere. More devastating is therising uncertainty over Russia that is causing managers to delay investment.Germany's Ifo business-climate index, a widely watched benchmark, fell inAugust.说明中有部分是统计结果。暖冬的原因使第一季度较以往同期有更多的解释。但由于地域政治危机，尤其在乌克兰，产生了更大的影响。德国向俄国的出口直线下降。因为给定了时间来减少了制裁，下降比预期更为猛烈。俄国仅占德国总出口额的3%，因此在高出口的地方更容易出现损失。更糟的是，由于俄国持续上涨的不确定性，导致了投资经理人的投资延迟。被广泛视为基准的德国的IFO商业景气指数在8月份也直线下跌
Aside from such new risks, however, the underlying Germaneconomy still looks strong. The federal budget is close to balance. Unemployment remains low:indeed, labour shortages are an increasing problem. This applies to largebusinesses such as care for the elderly, but especially to many of the niches for whichGermany is famous, such as hearing-aid acoustics, according to the CologneInstitute for Economic Research.除去这些新的风险，潜在的德国经济依然看起来坚挺。联邦预算很接近收支平衡。失业率依然很低：的确，劳动力短缺是一个不断增长的问题。据科隆公司经济研究所发现，低失业率体现于大型公司，比如对老年人口的护理方面，如助听器生产企业。
Germany's best contribution to recovery in the euro zonewould be to let wages rise. Whether they are already doing so will not becomeclear for months, because Germany reports the relevant statistics more slowlythan most. But the willingness is there. In July Jens Weidmann, the presidentof the Bundesbank, Germany's notoriously hawkish central bank, caused asensation by calling for pay rises of 3% on average. A new minimum wage shouldalso nudge wages up. It will take effect in 2015 at 8.50 an hour, more than 40%of the median wage.德国对恢复欧元区的最大贡献来自于提升工资。无论他们是否在做这个事，几个月内还未知，因为德国的统计报告一般出得很慢。但人们对此毫无疑义。7月份，德国的著名的鹰派中央银行的董事长Jens Weidmann，申请加薪上浮3%，这引起了轰动。一项新的最低工资标准也可能推动工资上涨。这项将在2015年生效的最低时薪8.5镑，这比平均工资高出40%。Rising German wages would represent the “natural Hume mechanism at work,
Rising German wages would represent the “natural Hume mechanism at work, butwith euros instead of gold, ” says Michael Burda, an economist at Berlin'sHumboldt University. By this he means the process first described by David Humein the 18th century, under which countries on the gold standard adjusted to imbalancesnot by letting currencies appreciate or depreciate but through rising orfalling prices and wages. In effect, Mr Burda says, the euro zone has imposed agold standard on its 18 members. Prices and wages are falling in several crisiscountries. Germany could help by letting its wages rise—if it is willing toaccommodate this. If not, there is a serious risk that deflation could takehold across the euro zone as a whole. 柏林洪堡大学的经济学者迈克尔·布达说，德国上涨的工资代表着休谟自然体制运转的，不是黄金而是欧元。他的意思是被大卫休谟首次于18世纪阐明的理论：即金本位国家调节经济平衡时不应该用货币增值或贬值的方法，而是应该提高或降低物价和薪酬。布达先生称，欧元区正在向其18个成员国强加金本位制。物价和薪酬在一些危机严重的国家正在下降。德国能通过提高其工资来起作用，如果它愿意如此做的话。如果不的话，严重的通货紧缩的危机很可能席卷整个欧元区。
German firms certainly have plenty of leeway, after practisingwage restraint for the past decade. Known as the sick man of Europe ten yearsago, Germany underwent a set of wrenching labour-market reforms starting in2003. Unions co-operated meekly, often accepting wage rises below inflation andproductivity growth.In effect, this wasan internal devaluationthat made exports more competitive, especially in sectors such as machines andchemicals, according to Karl Brenke at the German Institute for EconomicResearch in Berlin. The forgone spending power by workers also depressedconsumption. The combination led to huge trade surpluses.在过去十年实行薪酬限制，使德国的企业确信他们现在还有许多余量。正如十年前以欧洲的“狂人”而知名，德国自2003年经历了一系列复杂的劳动力市场改革。联盟向来是逆来顺受，常常在通货膨胀和生产力提高的情况下接受工资上涨的提议。柏林经济研究机构的卡尔称，国内发生的一场国内货币贬值实际上让出口更有竞争力了。工人们丧失消费能力也使消费低迷，二者结合致使了巨大的贸易顺差。
Rising wages and consumption in Germany, if they areaccepted, would partially reverse this trend. That would lead to smaller tradesurpluses, as both the European Union and the Americans are demanding. The onlyother domestic lever is increased investment, both by the government and bycompanies, an area where Germany has been stingy in recent years. But becauseinvesting requires confidence, Russia is again proving a damper.
德国提高工资和消费，如果被接受，将会一定程度上扭转这一趋势。这将使贸易顺差减少，这也是欧盟和美国希望的。唯一的国内杠杆是国内的投资，包括政府和企业投资，这一块也是近年较少的。但是因为投资需要信心，俄国提供了反面的教材。
The incredibly high cost of Americans'financial stupidity
美国人不会理财的高代价
We’ve all heard thesaying, “there’s a sucker born every minute.”
Well, what if Iwere to tell you that this is a gross underestimate? According to theDepartment of Human Health and Services, there are about 7.6 Americans bornevery minute, and there’s good evidence that about five of them will grow up tobe “suckers” when it comes to financial literacy.我们都听过一句俗语“每分钟都有一个傻瓜降生”。如果我说，这显然是低估了实际情形，那大家怎么想呢？美国卫生和公众服务部的数据显示，每分钟有7.6个美国人降生，有确切证据表明，其中有5位会是理财方面的“笨蛋”。
The University ofMichigan’s Health and Retirement Study found that only about one third ofAmericans ages 50 and older were able to correctly answer three simplequestions about how compound interest works, what inflation means for one’ssavings and investment gains, and the basic differences between a single stockand a mutual fund.密歇根大学的健康与退休研究项目发现，年龄在50岁及以上的美国人中，只有大约1/3人数可以无误地回答出三个简单问题：何为复利？通货膨胀会对个人的储蓄和投资收益产生什么影响？一只股票和一只共有基金有何差别？
In the latestaddition to a body ofeconomic research that shows Americans’ striking financial illiteracy, a studyby economists Benjamin Keys, Devin Pope, and Jaren Pope examined Americans’ refinancing habits duringthe worst of the financial crisis, when the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve were doing their utmost to getpeople to refinance their mortgages and take advantage of low interest rates.According to the paper:一系列的研究表明美国人理财能力令人震惊的低下，而最新来自经济学家本杰明、大卫和贾伦的研究课题是，美国人在经济危机最高峰时的再融资习惯，财政部和美联储当时竭尽全力来使人们对其债务进行再融资，并利用低利率的环境。
“We estimate that approximately 20% of households forwhom refinancing would be optimal and who appeared unconstrained to do so, hadnot taken advantage of the lower rates. We estimate the present-discounted costto the household who fails to refinance to be approximately $11,500, makingthis a particularly large consumer financial mistake.”很多家庭进行再融资是合适的，且他们也表现的愿意如此做，我们估计其中约有20%没有利用低利率。据我们计算，当前未进行再融资的家庭，损失约计1.15万美元，这在消费者金融领域是极大的失误。
Altogether, this failure to refinance cost theseconsumers, and presumably the economy at large, $5.4 billion. And this estimateis actually on the conservative side of the spectrum.由于没有进行再融资，这些消费者的整体损失是54亿美元，大概美国经济也蒙受了同等损失。而且，这个数字实际上偏于保守。
A 2008 study by Dartmouth finance professor KennethFrench estimated that investors in the U.S. pay roughly $100 billion per yearin fees and other expenses in an attempt to “beat the market” rather than investing in low-fee index funds that trackthe broader performance of the stock market. And a 2006 study from Harvardeconomist John Campbell estimated that poor decisions concerning mortgagefinancing costs homeowners more than $50 billion annually. The list goes on,from payday loans to credit cards to retirement products: Americans spendbillions more because of their lack of financial knowledge.
2008年达特毛斯学院经济教授弗兰奇在其研究中估算，美国的投资者每年支付了大约1000亿美元的费用以试图获得高于市场平均数的收益，而非投资于低手续费、专门跟踪大盘的指数基金。同时，2006年一项来自哈佛经济学家约翰的研究中估算，由于按揭贷款的决定欠妥，使得业主每年损失超出500亿。这份清单继续，从付每天的贷款到信用卡，到退休产品，由于缺少理财知识，美国人多花了十亿多美元。
For companies to grow, why bigger is notalways better公司并非越大越好
Growth has longbeen the imperative in economics and business. As the world’s population tops 7billion, and soon 8 and 9, it’s becoming clear that the best performingorganizations, and perhaps countries, will be less defined by absolute size andmore defined by the speed and agility that comes from clarity of purpose, strategic insightand decisive action. As the scale of human organizing expands to unprecedentedlevels, the winners will be those people, organizations, and countries thatcan: focus on what matters most to their core stakeholders; rapidly process newinformation, learn from it, and then thoughtfully and deliberately act amid thecomplexity.发展对于经济和商业来说是第一要务。随着世界人口达到了70亿，且很快会是80、90亿之多，一个清晰的趋势是，拥有最好表现的公司或国家将不是单纯以规模定义，而是以目标清晰、战略性的眼光、果断地行动而带来的速度和敏捷度来定义的。随着人类组织的规模发展到前所未有的规模，未来的赢家将是拥有这些的人、组织和国家：专注于其核心利益最相关的事，快速处理新信息，从中学习，然后于错综复杂的形势中周全地、审慎地展开行动。